The link between community violence and suicide in Mexico

New research from Faculty Associate Monica Caudillo published in Population and Development Review examines how sudden increases in community violence may influence suicide rates. Focusing on Mexico, which experienced a dramatic rise in homicide following changes in drug-enforcement policy in 2006, the study investigates whether exposure to heightened levels of violence is associated with changes in suicide patterns.

Using geocoded death certificate data covering municipalities across Mexico from 2000–2019, the researchers analyzed the relationship between local homicide and suicide rates. The findings show that spikes in homicide were associated with increases in suicide within six months of exposure, with the strongest effects occurring shortly after sudden increases in violence compared with the violence levels experienced in the previous three years.

The increase in suicide was primarily driven by self-inflicted strangulation. Importantly, the association was temporary: researchers found no significant changes in suicide more than six months after periods of high homicide, nor did longer-term cumulative exposure to increasing homicide rates appear to produce sustained increases in suicide.

These findings suggest that sudden surges in community violence may have immediate but short-lived effects on suicide risk, potentially by generating acute fear, stress, and uncertainty. The research highlights the broader public health consequences of community violence and underscores the importance of considering mental health and suicide prevention alongside efforts to address violence.
 

Caudillo, M.L., Lee, J. Does Exposure to Community Violence Predict Higher Suicide Rates? The Case of Mexico. Population and Development Review (2026). https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.70080