Eric Baumer, UMD Criminology and Criminal Justice

Presentation Title: Measurement Error and the Study of Neighborhoods and Crime: When and Where ACS Uncertainty Alters Substantive Conclusions

About the Presentation

Research on neighborhood effects relies heavily on measures from the American Community Survey (ACS), typically treating tract estimates as fixed despite their published sampling uncertainty. We examine what that practice means for substantive conclusions, when it matters, and whether its consequences can be anticipated. Across more than 20,000 census tracts and 160 city-years in two independently assembled databases roughly a decade apart, the results show that the consequences are selective rather than pervasive. Broad socioeconomic composites change little, providing reassurance for many conventional applications. Immigrant concentration and measures of racial and ethnic composition, however, are more affected, particularly when the populations underlying those measures are small. Accounting for ACS uncertainty widens intervals but can also move coefficients. When coefficients move appreciably, they more often move away from zero, suggesting that treating ACS measures as fixed can obscure associations rather than simply make them appear more precise. Moreover, the additional uncertainty is systematically greater where the relevant population is less prevalent, making the measures and places most vulnerable to ACS uncertainty identifiable before an outcome model is fit. The findings clarify when conventional treatment of ACS measures is a reasonable approximation and when greater caution is warranted, with implications extending beyond research on crime to neighborhood and population research that relies on ACS estimates for relatively small population groups.

About the Speaker

Eric Baumer is Professor of Criminology and Criminal Justice at the University of Maryland. He received his Ph.D. in sociology from the University at Albany, State University of New York, and previously held faculty positions at Florida State University and Penn State University. His research examines demographic, temporal, and spatial patterns of violence and crime, with particular attention to how population composition, community context, and public policy shape these patterns. His current work includes research on immigration and victimization, recent changes in gun violence in the United States, racial and ethnic disparities in lethal violence, and methodological challenges in measuring neighborhood conditions and their consequences.

Seminar Format:

Location IN PERSON: 2208 LeFrak Hall. We are requesting advanced registration so that we can track capacity.  Please use this link to RSVP for in-person attendance.

Location ONLINE VIA ZOOM: Zoom registration link.  Upon registration, you will receive an automatically generated email with the direct link for the seminar

If accommodations are needed, please send a request to the meeting organizer (mprc-support@umd.edu) at least 72 hours prior to the event, if possible, to allow time to discuss and implement alternatives.